Bitcoin Halving Model Broken? Update On BTC Forecast

The crypto market is struggling to recover following the latest price drops that we’ve seen recently.

The most important coins are trading in the green today, and analysts hope that things can get better with the price of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is still on track to $100k

Despite the crypto market fall, popular crypto analyst PlanB seems to be still optimistic. He believes that Bitcoin is on track to hit $100k after the halving.

The analyst who popularized the stock-to-flow (S2F) model issued updated his followers on social media after claims that the model is no longer valid.

“Some people think S2F model broke yesterday. Of course it did not. Bitcoin oscillated nicely around model value and stayed well within model bands. The extreme volatility within the model bands shakes out the weak hands. No extreme returns without extreme risk (volatility),” he said.

It’s been also revealed the fact that the full range of this model bands also accounts for Bitcoin’s massive volatility that we have been seeing these days.

The selloff over the past few days is a pretty brutal one, but BTC did not exactly deviate from the predicted price range of the S2F model.

The idea behind the stock-to-flow model

During a recent Off the Chain podcast hosted by Morgan Creek Digital’s Anthony Pompliano, PlanB talked about the fundamental idea behind the stock-to-flow model.

“Stock-to-flow is an attempt to quantify the digital scarcity invention that Satoshi made…Why does stock-to-flow work? Because it measures scarcity directly, like gold…The scarcer something is, the more valuable it should be.”

The halving is scheduled to take place in May and PlanB believes that BTC is still confident that Bitcoin is on its way to $100k by 2021.

At the moment of writing this article, BTC is trading in the green just like the other digital assets and the most important coin in the crypto market is priced at $5,297.04.


Companies Mentioned

CoinMarketCap
CoinMarketCap

CoinMarketCap is a website that provides cryptocurrency market cap rankings, charts, and more. It was purchased by Binance for $400M in 2020.

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Eduard Watson Author

An experienced finance writer for more than 10 years, active industry watcher, and gadget enthusiast.

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