The next Bitcoin halving, scheduled for April 2024, is expected to cause a BTC supply crisis according to crypto analyst Josh Rager. Despite any rejections of BTC exchange-traded fund proposals by regulators, Rager believes that Bitcoin will experience another bull run.
Bitcoin optimistic prediction
The halving, which reduces BTC miners’ rewards by half, will create a supply issue that will push Bitcoin into bullish territory next year, even without the assistance of a spot-based ETF.
“I would say due to the supply issue and the block reward cut in half that the Bitcoin halving definitely has an impact on price.
But the impact on price is delayed usually by a couple of months – if you look at past historical Bitcoin halvings and where the price started to uptrend post-event…”
He said the following:
“The Bitcoin ETF is a significant factor in overall Bitcoin price and will have a major influence in the upcoming year. Still… even if ETF was denied (though I don’t see it happening this time) with the Bitcoin supply crisis at hand, it’s very likely Bitcoin price would continue to uptrend throughout 2024 after an ETF denial dump.”
Josh Rager asserts that the post-halving uptrend has historical precedence, despite a small sample size. The fundamentals and impact of block reward reduction on the overall price cannot be denied.
Even in the event of ETF denial, Bitcoin will still experience a surge in 2024. As for his long-term outlook on BTC, Josh Rager predicts a full-blown bull market by June 2024.
Here’s his BTC price prediction for the next year: Bitcoin ETF in September will be postponed until March, causing a pullback and continued chop within the $20,000 to $30,000 range over the next six months.
ETF approval by March will result in a Bitcoin price pump into the halving event around April, potentially reaching up to $40,000. After halving, the price will stall and experience a slight pullback for the following weeks.
Up only Bitcoin price action will begin around June/July 2024 and run hard into early/mid-2025.
