It has been just revealed the fact that the important crypto analyst Nicholas Merten has just shocked the crypto space with this latest Bitcoin prediction.

Bitcoin halving prediction is not too optimistic

Nicholas Merten, a crypto analyst, has a different opinion about Bitcoin’s (BTC) next halving event. Unlike many traders and analysts who expect the bull market to reignite, Merten believes that the halving in 2024 will not cause a significant rally.

He claims that the impact of halving on the new supply of Bitcoin will not be enough of a catalyst.

Bitcoin halving happens every four years, which reduces BTC mining rewards by half and consequently reduces the amount of new supply entering the market.

The next halving is expected to occur on April 15th.

Merten said the following:

“There’s a big misconception here. That halving reduction, while it is technically declining the inflation rate in half, the problem is that inflation rate reduction in nominal terms – in real actual impact of terms – is getting weaker and weaker and weaker over time. And this also explains why Bitcoin has had diminishing returns over time. It doesn’t expand as rapidly as it has in the past.”

The upcoming halving event will decrease miner rewards from about 6.25 Bitcoin per block to 3.125 Bitcoin per block.

According to Merten, the reduction in value is relatively small compared to the total market cap of BTC, and he doubts it will trigger a significant rally.

The halving will result in 164,250 fewer Bitcoins minted annually, which equates to $4.4 billion at current market rates.

This could potentially lead to miners selling their Bitcoins to cover operational expenses such as electricity and computer hardware.

On a daily basis, this translates to 450 fewer Bitcoins, or about $12 million in potential sell-side pressure. While this may seem like a considerable amount, when we consider it against Bitcoin’s market valuation and size, it may not be enough to trigger a new bull market.

Bitcoin’s market capitalization is currently at $523 billion, which is nearly half a trillion dollars. Therefore, even though $4.4 billion may sound like a lot, it is a small fraction of Bitcoin’s overall value.

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