Rarely has the outcome of a Federal Reserve meeting been so uniformly anticipated. Heading into the 28–29 April FOMC session in Washington, both CME FedWatch — which aggregates futures market pricing — and major prediction platforms including Polymarket and Kalshi have converged on near-certainty that the Fed will leave its target rate unchanged at 3.75%.
From Hike Fears to Hold Consensus
The journey to 99% certainty for a hold is striking when viewed against the backdrop of a month ago, when CME data showed a 6.2% probability that the Fed might actually hike rates. That hawkish tail risk has been comprehensively eliminated as inflation data has behaved broadly in line with Fed projections — though the current 4.7% inflation reading remains well above the 2% target that the central bank is aiming to restore, according to data aggregated by Bitcoin.com News.
On prediction markets, Polymarket traders have deployed $20.9 million into the 2026 rate cuts market, with approximately 40% of that capital positioned on zero cuts materialising this year — a notably cautious reading given the CME futures curve, which shows cuts priced in for the second half of 2026.
Crypto Market Implications
For Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, the Fed’s decision on 29 April is less about the outcome — a hold is almost universally priced in — and far more about the tone of Chair Powell’s press conference. Any language suggesting the Fed remains comfortable with current policy and sees a path to cutting later in 2026 would be interpreted as constructive for risk assets. More hawkish language, referencing stubborn inflation or the need for rates to remain restrictive for longer, could trigger a sell-off in both equities and crypto.
The interaction between Fed policy and Bitcoin’s price has become increasingly direct as institutional ownership deepens. Professional portfolio managers who hold Bitcoin alongside equities and other risk assets respond to Fed signals in a relatively uniform fashion, meaning macro catalysts now move crypto markets as powerfully as sector-specific news.
The Bigger Question: When Do Cuts Begin?
With the April hold widely expected, attention will immediately pivot to the timing of the first rate cut. The June and September FOMC meetings are the primary candidates, with the futures market currently favouring September as the most likely starting point. For crypto bulls, the eventual onset of an easing cycle — even a modest one — would remove a significant headwind that has limited upside potential since the tightening cycle began in 2022.
