According to Tom Lee, the Managing Partner at Fundstrat Global Advisors, Bitcoin (BTC) may reach six figures before the halving event scheduled for 2024.
Bitcoin could rise by over 350%
In a research note, Lee stated that if a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) is approved, it could cause BTC to surge to between $140,000 and $180,000 by April of next year.
This would represent an increase of 380% to 516% from current levels. Lee’s prediction is based on the theory proposed by Sean Farrell, the Head of Crypto Strategy at Fundstrat, that the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF would increase the daily demand for Bitcoin by five times.
“Current bitcoin market is in balance with $25 million in daily block rewards and $25 million in daily demand.
According to Sean Farrell, there could be a potential demand of $25 billion for Incremental ETF in the first year which translates to a daily demand of $100 million.
This is significantly higher than the current daily supply of $25 million and therefore, the equilibrium price would need to increase to match the demand.
Based on equilibrium analysis, it is estimated that the clearing price would be between $140,000 to $180,000 before April 2024 halvening.
This idea of a higher equilibrium price is consistent with Sean Farrell’s estimate of a flow multiplier of 4X-5X for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin usually breaks through the bull market
An analyst named Benjamin Cowen has issued a warning to traders about the risks involved in Bitcoin (BTC) trading.
According to Cowen, history indicates that the top cryptocurrency is at a high risk of correcting. In his latest strategy session, Cowen explains to his 784,000 YouTube subscribers that BTC usually breaks through its bull market support band during the first half of pre-halving years.
However, it then dips back below it in the third quarter. Cowen defines the bull market support band as a combination of the 20-week exponential moving average (EMA) and the 21-week simple moving average (SMA). He supports his argument by providing examples of BTC following the same pattern in 2011, 2015, and 2019.
