Bitcoin’s resilience tested by AI stock selloff
Bitcoin held near $65,000 on Monday, July 27, 2026, even as Nvidia’s 4.8% decline dragged AI-linked technology stocks sharply lower. The cryptocurrency’s ability to weather a broader tech rout that saw AI favourites come under sustained pressure has caught the attention of market participants who have grown accustomed to digital assets moving in lockstep with risk equities.
BTC was up roughly 4% since Friday, according to CoinDesk data, while ether (ETH) reached its strongest price in nearly two months. The overall Nasdaq, by contrast, finished approximately flat, buoyed by gains in hyperscalers Apple, Microsoft, and Google, which helped offset the weakness in semiconductor and AI-exposed names.
The divergence matters. For months, traders have debated whether bitcoin functions as a high-beta proxy for tech sentiment or whether it trades on its own supply and demand dynamics. Monday’s session offered a data point for the decoupling thesis, though analysts caution that a single day of resilience does not constitute a trend.
Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group, framed the development in constructive terms. “The recent resilience of crypto during periods of volatility in traditional markets is an encouraging development,” he said. “It supports the argument that digital assets are beginning to decouple, at least at the margin, from conventional risk assets.”
That argument will face its most serious examination in the days ahead. The Federal Reserve’s policy decision, due Wednesday, sits at the centre of a calendar packed with potential market-moving events. Core PCE inflation data lands Thursday, alongside second-quarter GDP figures and earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon. Friday brings a roughly $13 to $14 billion bitcoin and ether options expiry. The concentration of risk events in a single week means that the relative calm bitcoin displayed on Monday could evaporate quickly.
Technical thresholds and ether’s outperformance
For analysts looking at price structure, the levels are relatively clear. Kruger identified $67,300 as the threshold bitcoin must clear to break out of the multi-week consolidation that has capped prices since June. A sustained move above that level, in his view, could signal the next leg higher in a bull market that has spent the summer range-bound.
Ether faces its own test at $2,000. The second-largest cryptocurrency has been outperforming bitcoin in recent sessions, a pattern that some strategists read as a leading indicator for the broader crypto complex. The ETH-BTC ratio, which measures the price of ether denominated in bitcoin, climbed to a three-month high on Monday.
Tom Lee, chairman of Bitmine and co-founder of Fundstrat, pointed to ether’s relative strength as a bullish signal for crypto markets. The logic is straightforward: when capital rotates from bitcoin into higher-beta assets like ether, it often reflects rising risk appetite among crypto-native participants rather than cautious positioning. Whether that pattern holds through a volatile Fed week remains to be seen, but the technical setup at least gives bulls something to work with.
The challenge is that technical breakouts require volume and conviction, and both have been in short supply. Bitcoin has spent weeks oscillating within a range that neither confirms nor denies the bull case. A clean break above $67,300 would resolve that ambiguity in favour of the bulls. A failure to hold current levels, however, would hand the initiative back to sellers who have been waiting for an opportunity to press their advantage.
For more on how digital assets interact with broader market dynamics, see our Bitcoin coverage.
Skeptics warn of weak demand and falling open interest
Not everyone shares the constructive interpretation. Nansen senior research analyst Nicolai Sondergaard offered a markedly more cautious assessment, arguing that the recent rebound lacks the buying conviction typically seen before sustained rallies.
“The market is holding range without strong buyers, not building toward a breakout,” Sondergaard said. His base case remains a pullback toward $52,000 to $58,000 unless market conditions improve. That range would represent a significant retreat from current levels and would bring bitcoin back toward the June lows that many traders had assumed marked a cycle bottom.
The data Sondergaard points to is difficult to dismiss. While nearly 9,000 BTC left exchanges over the past week, a figure that might superficially suggest accumulation, open interest in bitcoin futures has actually fallen even as prices edged higher. Declining open interest alongside rising prices is an unusual combination. It suggests that traders are reducing exposure rather than adding fresh bullish bets, and that the price advance may be driven more by a lack of selling pressure than by aggressive buying.
Order-book data reinforces this interpretation. Sondergaard noted that order books continue to point to net selling pressure, meaning that the balance of resting bids and asks favours sellers. In a genuinely bullish setup, one would expect to see buyers stepping in at multiple levels, absorbing supply and pushing prices higher with conviction. That pattern has not materialised.
For Nansen to turn more constructive on the outlook, the firm is looking for three specific developments. First, stronger stablecoin inflows to exchanges, which would indicate fresh capital entering the crypto ecosystem rather than existing balances being recycled. Second, sustained spot bitcoin ETF buying, which would represent structural demand from institutional and retail investors accessing the asset through regulated vehicles. Third, signs that long-term holders have stopped selling at a loss, a behaviour that typically marks the exhaustion of bearish pressure from cohorts that acquired at higher prices.
Until those conditions are met, Sondergaard views the recent recovery as a positioning bounce rather than the start of a broader uptrend. A positioning bounce occurs when short sellers cover their positions or when leveraged longs add modest exposure, creating upward pressure that lacks the fundamental demand to sustain it. These bounces can look impressive in the moment but often fade when they encounter genuine resistance.
The distinction between a positioning bounce and a trend reversal has significant implications for portfolio allocation. Investors who mistake the former for the latter risk buying near local highs, while those who wait for confirmation risk missing the early portion of a move. The Fed decision and subsequent data releases may provide the clarity that both camps are seeking.
Macro calendar and options expiry heighten stakes
The concentration of risk events this week creates a particularly volatile backdrop for crypto. The Federal Reserve’s decision on Wednesday will be parsed for signals about the trajectory of monetary policy, with investors focused on whether officials hint at changes to the rate path. Crypto markets have historically been sensitive to rate expectations, as lower rates tend to support risk assets by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like bitcoin.
Thursday’s core PCE inflation report is the Fed’s preferred gauge of price pressures. A reading that deviates significantly from expectations could reshape market expectations for the timing and pace of future policy moves. Second-quarter GDP data, released the same day, will provide additional context on the health of the US economy and, by extension, the environment in which the Fed is operating.
Earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon round out the calendar. While these are not crypto companies, their results will influence broader risk sentiment, particularly given the concentration of market capitalisation in these names. Strong earnings could support the tech sector and, by extension, risk assets more broadly. Disappointing results could amplify the selling pressure that began with Nvidia’s decline on Monday.
Friday’s options expiry adds another layer of complexity. With roughly $13 to $14 billion in bitcoin and ether options set to expire, market makers and large traders may adjust their hedging positions in the days leading up to the settlement. This can create price distortions that are unrelated to fundamental demand but nonetheless influence spot prices. The interaction between macroeconomic data, earnings, and options-related flows makes this week particularly difficult to navigate with confidence.
Analytical closing
Bitcoin’s ability to hold near $65,000 while AI stocks sold off is notable, but it is not yet conclusive evidence of decoupling. The real test comes this week. If the Fed signals a dovish posture and inflation data cooperates, bitcoin has a credible path toward the $67,300 breakout level that analysts have identified. Ether’s outperformance adds a constructive wrinkle. But the warnings from Nansen about weak buying conviction, falling futures open interest, and persistent net selling pressure cannot be ignored. The market is balanced on a knife edge between a confirmed breakout and a retreat toward the mid-$50,000s. By Friday, after the options expiry and the full run of macro data, participants will have a much clearer picture of which scenario is playing out. Until then, caution is warranted.”
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