Bitcoin Steadies Above $86,000 After Soft US Payrolls Report
Bitcoin is holding just below $87,000 after the latest United States employment figures came in far weaker than economists had anticipated, providing fresh fuel for a rally that had already carried the largest cryptocurrency to an eight-month high.
The US economy added just 29,000 jobs in September, a strikingly low print, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. The data landed amid expectations that a cooling labour market could push the Federal Reserve toward a more accommodative monetary stance. Bitcoin, which had already topped $86,000 in the hours before the release, held onto its earlier gains following the report and was trading up more than 2% over the past 24 hours.
The price action caps a remarkable stretch for the asset. Bitcoin is closing out its best quarter since 2024, while ether has recorded its best quarter since 2021, according to live market updates tracked by CryptoGazette’s markets desk. The rally, however, has not been entirely one-directional. An earlier soft-inflation pop to $85,500 faded when bond yields refused to fall, a reminder that macro forces remain firmly in charge of the short-term narrative.
For more on the macro forces shaping prices, see our Bitcoin coverage.
Traders Lean Bullish as Open Interest Jumps $2.3 Billion
The derivatives market is telling a story of growing conviction. Bitcoin open interest jumped by $2.3 billion as traders paid more for bullish positions, with rising funding rates signalling renewed demand for leveraged long exposure.
That appetite for risk is visible elsewhere. Bitcoin dominance, the measure of bitcoin’s share of total crypto market capitalisation, is closing in on a return to 60%. Meanwhile USDT’s share of the market has slipped to 6.3%, a combination that points to a market growing more comfortable with risk. When capital sits in stablecoins, traders are typically waiting on the sidelines. When it rotates into bitcoin and, subsequently, riskier altcoins, it suggests positioning for further upside.
Not every signal is uniformly bullish. A trend gauge tracked by onchain analysis firm CryptoQuant shows a so-called bull score nearing its perfect level, yet the buyers who drove bitcoin to its eight-month high are already pulling back. Analysts have also flagged a single price level that bulls must defend, with warnings that a break below it could open the door to a deeper retracement. Cooling momentum at elevated prices is a familiar pattern in crypto, and it tempers the enthusiasm somewhat.
Wall Street, for its part, has grown more constructive. Citigroup raised its 12-month bitcoin price target to $113,000, citing a resumption of inflows into exchange-traded funds. ETF demand has been a defining driver of this cycle, and the return of inflows after a period of hesitation lends institutional weight to the retail-led momentum.
Regulatory Front: SEC Custody Proposal and Bank Group Lawsuit
While markets celebrate, the regulatory backdrop remains contested on two fronts.
The Securities and Exchange Commission has proposed new crypto custody rules for investment advisers and funds. Custody has long been one of the thorniest issues for institutional adoption, and clearer rules could either unlock further adviser allocations or impose compliance burdens that slow the flow of capital. The proposal’s details will be scrutinised closely by asset managers who have so far kept crypto exposure limited by ambiguous custody obligations.
Separately, a bank group has sued a US regulator over its decision to grant crypto trust charters. The lawsuit underscores a broader turf war between state and federal authorities over who gets to charter and supervise crypto-focused financial institutions. The outcome could shape how quickly crypto firms can access the federal banking perimeter, and whether traditional banks face competition from natively digital challengers operating under national charters.
Both developments arrive at a moment when the industry’s credibility is being tested in other quarters. Hackers who breached the exchange Bitget moved $4 million into Zcash’s private pool, making the funds harder to trace. Three transfers pushed roughly 15% of the stolen ZEC into Ironwood, a shielded pool where payments hide their senders, recipients and amounts. The incident is likely to feature in future debates over privacy technology and its abuse, and it hands ammunition to those who argue that privacy coins require stricter oversight.
In Japan, Metaplanet’s independent directors have pushed back against shareholder fury over a controversial executive payout plan. The directors cited management’s financial risk-taking and restructuring role in defending the package, but left questions about chief executive Simon Gerovich’s exercised shares and the MMXX Ventures vehicle unanswered. Metaplanet has been one of the most prominent corporate bitcoin accumulators in Asia, so governance noise there matters to investors who track public-company bitcoin treasuries.
Broader Market Notes: Blast Shutdown and Robinhood’s Push
Away from bitcoin, the fortunes of the wider ecosystem remain mixed.
Blast, once a $2 billion Ethereum layer-2 network, is shutting down after its assets plunged 98%. The collapse is a cautionary tale for a layer-2 sector that expanded rapidly on generous incentive programmes, and it raises hard questions about the sustainability of token emissions as a substitute for genuine economic activity.
Robinhood, meanwhile, is pressing hard for active traders. The brokerage has unveiled an AI agent that trades on a user’s behalf around the clock, alongside perpetual futures and weekend trading. The firm framed the tools as giving customers more flexibility, but the arrangement carries a stark caveat: if a trade goes wrong, users bear the risk, not Robinhood. The expansion into leveraged crypto products and automated trading tools signals how mainstream brokerages now view crypto as a core battleground for retail engagement, even as it transfers execution risk squarely onto customers.
What Comes Next
The combination of weak US payrolls, rising unemployment and a market that refuses to give back its gains suggests bitcoin has entered a phase where bad economic news is good news. That trade works as long as investors believe monetary easing is coming. The fading of the earlier soft-inflation rally when bond yields refused to fall shows the limits of that logic: if yields stay stubbornly high, the easing narrative weakens and bitcoin’s macro tailwind could stall.
The structure of the market offers reasons for both confidence and caution. Rising open interest and funding rates confirm genuine demand for bullish exposure, and Citigroup’s $113,000 target reflects renewed institutional interest via ETFs. Yet a bull score near its ceiling, buyers pulling back and a critical support level that must hold all point to a market that is stretched in the short term.
The regulatory picture cuts both ways. The SEC’s custody proposal could formalise the institutional on-ramp, while the bank group’s lawsuit and the Bitget laundering trail into Zcash’s shielded pool show that friction is far from resolved. For now, the path of least resistance appears higher, but the burden of proof sits with the bulls at $87,000.
