Strive Chief Says Bitcoin Rally Is Intact With 50% CAGR Base Case Through 2030
Strive chief executive Matt Cole has delivered an emphatic bull case for Bitcoin, declaring the cryptocurrency has regained its momentum and “will go to the moon” as digital assets reclaimed $3 trillion in total market value for the first time since January.
Speaking in a Bloomberg Crypto segment, with Bitcoin trading just above $86,000 at the time of the interview, Cole said Strive’s base case remains a 50% compound annual growth rate for Bitcoin through 2030. He went further, describing that forecast as still “conservative” given the macro conditions he expects to unfold over the coming years.
The arithmetic behind that base case is striking. If a 50% compound annual growth rate holds through the end of the decade, Cole’s framework implies Bitcoin reaching roughly $400,000 to $500,000 by 2030, a multiple of current levels that would place the asset’s market capitalisation well beyond most institutional forecasts currently circulating on trading desks.
The timing of the remarks matters. Cole’s interview came as crypto markets were recovering sharply from a difficult stretch, with digital assets crossing a major psychological threshold in total value for the first time in months. The reclaiming of the $3 trillion mark, last seen in January, has been read by many analysts as a signal that the worst of the recent drawdown may be over.
For readers tracking the broader market recovery, our Bitcoin coverage follows the price action and institutional flows shaping this phase of the cycle.
The Macro Case: A Weaker Dollar and a Constrained Treasury
Cole’s optimism rests on a set of macro assumptions rather than pure momentum. Central to his thesis is the expectation that the U.S. dollar will weaken materially over the next couple of years. A sustained decline in the world’s reserve currency has historically been interpreted as supportive for hard assets, and Cole is positioning Bitcoin as the primary beneficiary of that dynamic.
He also pointed to the behaviour of the U.S. Treasury. Cole said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will “constrain the ability for long end rates to move substantially higher”, though he was quick to add that Bessent has “not done enough yet” on that front.
That distinction is important. In Cole’s framing, the Treasury’s approach to the long end of the yield curve is the policy lever that will determine whether liquidity conditions remain favourable for risk assets. If long-term rates are held in check, the argument runs, the financial conditions that fuelled previous Bitcoin bull runs remain in place. If they are allowed to rise unchecked, the thesis weakens. His comment that the Treasury Secretary has not yet done enough suggests he sees current policy as directionally supportive but incomplete.
The link between dollar weakness and Bitcoin strength is the spine of the Strive position. Rather than framing Bitcoin as a speculative technology bet, Cole is presenting it as a monetary hedge, an asset whose value derives from the debasement of fiat currencies and the policy choices of the U.S. government. It is an argument that has gained currency among institutional allocators since the last cycle, and the $3 trillion market recovery gives it fresh resonance.
‘Fastest Horse Versus Gold’: The Store-of-Value Contest
Perhaps the most quotable theme from the interview was Cole’s characterisation of Bitcoin as the “fastest horse versus gold”. The phrase captures a debate that has run through the asset management industry for several years: whether Bitcoin will displace or at least outperform gold as the store of value of choice in the coming cycle.
Gold has enjoyed a strong run of its own, attracting record central bank buying and strong retail demand amid geopolitical uncertainty. But Cole’s framing suggests he believes Bitcoin’s asymmetry is superior. A 50% compound annual growth rate, even if achieved only approximately, would leave gold’s historical returns far behind over the same period.
The comparison is not incidental to Strive’s positioning. An asset manager building products around Bitcoin has a commercial interest in the digital asset winning that contest, and investors should weigh the forecast accordingly. Even so, the substance of the argument reflects a genuine shift in how Bitcoin is discussed at the institutional level. The conversation has moved from whether Bitcoin is a viable asset at all to whether it is the better store of value relative to a 5,000-year-old incumbent.
Cole’s broader message was that the recent rise in Bitcoin is not a broken or exhausted rally. Instead, he described it as part of a longer-term bull case driven by three reinforcing forces: macro conditions, liquidity, and investor demand. That triad is worth unpacking. Macro conditions refer to the expected dollar weakness and Treasury policy already discussed. Liquidity points to the availability of capital flowing into risk assets, including the spot exchange-traded fund channels that have opened since early 2024. Investor demand reflects the structural shift of institutions and corporates into the asset class.
Notably, the headline observation that “DATs”, digital assets and tokens more broadly, are not broken formed part of the interview’s framing. The point was a rebuttal to bearish narratives that gained ground during the earlier drawdown, when total market value fell well below the $3 trillion threshold and sceptics questioned whether the cycle had ended.
Regulatory Backdrop: A Market Moving On Without Washington
The Bloomberg Crypto segment in which Cole appeared sat within a broader editorial context that included discussion of U.S. market structure and tokenization. That framing is itself telling. The market is entering a new phase of regulatory and institutional development even as crypto legislation has stalled in the Senate.
The contrast is instructive. On one hand, Congress has failed to pass the market structure legislation the industry has long sought, leaving firms to operate under existing securities and commodities frameworks. On the other, institutional activity around tokenization and digital asset infrastructure continues to expand, with Wall Street firms building the plumbing for a tokenised financial system regardless of the legislative timetable.
This dynamic cuts both ways for Cole’s thesis. The absence of comprehensive legislation creates uncertainty that could cap institutional participation at the margins. Yet the continued build-out of tokenization infrastructure suggests the direction of travel is set, and that capital markets are preparing for a future in which digital assets play a structural role. A market that reclaims $3 trillion in total value while its flagship legislation sits stalled in the Senate is, on balance, a market that has decoupled somewhat from Washington’s calendar.
The Verdict: A Bold Call in a Recovering Market
Cole’s forecast deserves scrutiny on its own terms. A 50% compound annual growth rate sustained through 2030, to roughly $400,000 to $500,000 per Bitcoin, is well above the median of published institutional models. Even Cole concedes the label of “conservative” is doing heavy lifting, resting as it does on a specific macro path: material dollar weakness and a Treasury that keeps long-end rates contained.
If either assumption fails, the growth rate likely fails with it. A resurgent dollar or a bond market that forces long-term yields sharply higher would undermine the liquidity conditions underpinning the call. Investors should also note the inherent incentive: an asset manager with Bitcoin-linked products benefits directly from bullish sentiment.
That said, the market backdrop lends the call credibility it might otherwise lack. Digital assets reclaiming $3 trillion for the first time since January, Bitcoin holding above $86,000, and continuing institutional work on tokenization together suggest the recovery has substance rather than being a bear market bounce. Cole’s contribution is to give that recovery a coherent macro narrative.
The coming months will test the thesis. Watch the dollar index, the long end of the Treasury curve, and whether the Senate can revive market structure legislation. If the dollar weakens and long rates stay anchored, the “fastest horse” may indeed keep running. If not, the moon will have to wait.
