Bitcoin is currently trading at around $8,700, but the digital asset is expected to see some massive price movements ahead of the halving.
As you know, the much-awaited event is scheduled to take place on May 12.
At the moment of writing this article, BTC is trading in the red and the most important coin is priced at $8,706.17.
Despite the massive fall of the coin’s price from back in March, people’s interest in BTC is still on the rise, and they continue to see the king crypto as a safe haven.
The crypto market managed to recover completely following the Black Thursday.
Bitcoin is allegedly about to begin a parabolic phase
The countdown to the halving has begun, and there are various optimistic predictions about the price of BTC.
It seems that the prediction claiming that BTC is about to begin a fourth parabolic phase that will bring the crypto to more than $250k dollars is lighting up the crypto space on Twitter.
There’s a post revealing the new forecast from PlanB which continues to gather likes and it also started a massive debate as the Daily Hodl first noted.
My third #bitcoin article! “Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow Cross Asset Model (S2FX)”. Looking at stock-to-flow, phase transitions, cluster analysis, silver and gold.https://t.co/cQEv7Qvu64
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) April 27, 2020
Debating the relationship between BTC’s halving and the price of the coin
This forecast reignited the debate about the relationship between BTC’s halving and the price of BTC.
PlanB said that his latest model shows that BTC will rise to $288k by the end of 2014.
Macro investor Raoul Pal said that the new model is definitely offering a powerful method of analysis.
This is what I saw in @100trillionUSD model when he first revealed it. It gives a great valuation for not only bitcoin but gold and silver too (and other similar assets). It’s super powerful for relative valuations and outright valuations for all these assets. Amazing work. https://t.co/hpLXiO2Nws
— Raoul Pal (@RaoulGMI) April 28, 2020
Not everyone agrees and Alex Kruger is one of the naysayers. He said that the fact that Bitcoin’s scarcity is locked in instead of random destroys the model.
Here @btconometrics & @kripfganz debunk cointegration by arguing S2F is a stationary variable (integrated of order 0) and cointegration can only be present among nonstationary variables (integrated of order 1) … should be integrated to the same order. https://t.co/jZhgGzJ1xQ
— Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) April 30, 2020
That’s SPOT ON.
Both the reasoning, and the conclusion.
Bitcoin’s S2F and Price are not cointegrated.
Therefore the model has no predictive power.
People using S2F to predict $BTC may as well be using the moon cycles to predict $BTC.
— Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) April 30, 2020
Stay tuned for the latest news about Bitcoin’s price ahead of the halving.
