On April 24, approximately $8 billion in Bitcoin options will expire across Deribit, CME, and Binance – making it the single largest expiry event of 2026. The last time this much open interest settled at once was the December 2025 quarterly expiry, which triggered a 9% price swing in under 48 hours.
Traders are paying attention. Implied volatility for the April 24-25 window has spiked to 72%, up from a baseline of 48% earlier this month. The options market is pricing in a roughly $7,000 move in either direction from current levels.
The Numbers
According to data from Deribit, which handles approximately 85% of all crypto options volume, the breakdown is:
- Total notional value: $8.04 billion
- Put/Call ratio: 0.67 (more calls than puts – bullish lean)
- Max pain price: $91,000
- Largest open interest strike (calls): $100,000
- Largest open interest strike (puts): $85,000
Max pain – the price at which the most options expire worthless, causing maximum loss for option buyers – sits at $91,000. With Bitcoin trading around $94,200 at time of writing, the market is roughly $3,200 above max pain. Historically, large expiries tend to pull price toward max pain in the 48-72 hours before settlement, though this gravitational effect isn’t guaranteed.
What the Put/Call Ratio Tells Us
A put/call ratio of 0.67 means there are roughly two call options for every three put options – indicating that traders have been predominantly betting on upside heading into the expiry. The $100,000 strike call is the single most popular contract, with over $800 million in open interest.
But, the $100,000 call is likely a mix of genuine directional bets and covered call strategies, where holders sell upside to earn premium while keeping their BTC. Parsing the two is difficult, but the sheer concentration at the $100K strike suggests many traders view it as a near-term ceiling.
On the put side, the $85,000 strike holds $540 million in open interest. This is the market’s implied floor – the level where downside protection is concentrated. If Bitcoin drops below $85,000 before Friday, those puts go in the money and their holders profit.
Historical Precedent
Large options expiries have a mixed record of causing lasting price moves. The December 2025 quarterly expiry saw BTC drop from $99,200 to $90,500 before recovering within a week. The March 2026 expiry was less eventful, with a 3% dip that reversed in 24 hours.
The pattern tends to be: price gravitates toward max pain in the days before expiry, then breaks sharply in one direction once the contracts settle and the hedging positions unwind. Market makers who sold options need to dynamically hedge their exposure as expiry approaches, and when those hedges are removed post-settlement, the underlying price can move quickly.
“Options expiries don’t create new trends – they accelerate existing ones,” said Joshua Lim, head of derivatives at FalconX. “If the macro backdrop is bullish going into the expiry, the post-settlement move tends to be bullish. The expiry just clears the deck.”
Macro Context
The timing of this expiry is notable. Several macro catalysts are converging around the same window:
- Schwab crypto launch: Charles Schwab opened direct BTC/ETH trading on April 21, potentially driving new retail demand.
- Drift Protocol hack: The $285 million Solana exploit on April 18 has shaken confidence in DeFi and created risk-off sentiment in altcoins, though Bitcoin has been relatively insulated.
- US GDP data: The Bureau of Economic Analysis releases Q1 2026 GDP estimates on April 25 – the day after the expiry. A strong number could boost risk assets; a weak one could trigger a selloff.
The confluence of these factors means the post-expiry move might be amplified beyond what the options market alone would produce.
How Traders Are Positioning
Short-term traders are split. The funding rate on perpetual futures is slightly positive (0.01%), suggesting mild bullish bias but nothing extreme. On-chain data shows a slight uptick in exchange inflows over the past 48 hours, which can indicate holders moving BTC to exchanges to sell – or to use as margin for used positions.
Whales have been relatively quiet. Glassnode data shows that addresses holding 1,000+ BTC haven’t made significant moves in the past week, suggesting large holders are waiting for the expiry to pass before making their next play.
For retail traders, the playbook is straightforward: expect heightened volatility from Wednesday evening through Friday afternoon (UTC). Tight stop-losses, reduced position sizes, and an awareness that the $85,000-$100,000 range is where the battle lines are drawn.
The $8 billion expiry won’t tell us where Bitcoin goes for the rest of 2026. But it will very likely tell us where it’s going for the next two weeks. Watch the max pain level at $91,000 – if Bitcoin holds above it going into Thursday, the bull case strengthens. If it drops toward it, buckle up.
